The Real Causes Of Guinsaugon Mudslides AccordingTo Geoscientists

FEb.15,2010
The Real Causes Of Guinsaugon Mudslides According To Geoscientists
By Quirico M. Gorpido, Jr.

Maasin City, Southern Leyte-What are the real causes of massive landslides in brgy. Guinsaugon which “unexpectedly” occurred on Feb 17,2006 at past eleven a.m. burying less than 2,000 people alive coincidentally during a Women’s Day celebration? At that time elementary schoolchildren, teachers, some barangay health workers, some town employees and some visitors from nearby barangays were gathered at the auditorium for the aforesaid celebration.
The several causes that the geoscientists were discussing and revealing one by one during a conference on Guinsaugon mudslides were also attended by scientists from Canada, United Kingdom, Japan,Sir Lanka,Nepal and the Philippines. Richard Guthrie, a landslide expert and a research assistant of Dr. Stephen Evans, both from the University of Waterloo in Canada visited Guinsaugon after the great catastrophe, as part of the Canadian government’s aid to the Philippines following the landslide.
The weeklong international conference that were held in 3 places of Tacloban City, Palo town and in St.
Bernard last April 2008 were also attended by Prof.Mark Albert Zarco of the Dept. of Engineering Science, University of the Philippines,Diliman,Quezon City and St.Bernard Mayor Rico Rentuza. On the other hand, Guinsaugon is one of St.Bernard’s barangays which is less than 10 kilometers away from the town proper. While St.Bernard town is about 125 kilometers away from Maasin City, the capital city of Southern Leyte
Prior to the great disaster, there was a continual heavy rain as early as October 2005 up to February 2006 according to the residents in the area. The continual 4 months heavy rains have caused a gradual saturation of Mt. Kan-abag’s “soft soil”. The condition of its soil compounds was aggravated with the scarcity of forest plants with very less population of huge trees that could hold large volume of soil and water.
At the foot of Mt. Kan-abag, six barangays were established where hundreds and hundreds of folks have inhabited and earned their living by farming. But only Guinsaugon was hit and even sparing a nearby brgy. of Magatas. A resident of Magatas who is now a teacher and teaches here said.” If you look at the situation of Brgy.Magatas,it is also highly vulnerable and a potential hit by the mudslide, but we were thankful that it was spared.” The said teacher had lost a cousin, a UCCP pastor who was assigned in Guinsaugon.A close family friend of my late mother had also lost 2 siblings living in Guinsaugon and 5 cousins. Indeed, the great unforgettable tragedy has brought sudden orphans to many children and students, lost of loved ones and hundreds of relatives grieving in anguish, sorrow and agony.
Former St.Benard Mayor Erlinda Lim, who was supposed to be with the group of town hall’s employees as the speaker on a Women’s Day Celebration in Guinsaugon including a municipal nurse, was luckily spared from the mudslide.Instead,she went to San Juan, the next town which is 7 kilometers away, to attend to another appointment. Another town hall employee w ho was instructed to go back to their office to get the forgotten camera for taking pictures, was also luckily save. As he left Guinsaugon in haste by walking towards brgy. Tambis located along the road, he said, he heard a roaring sound like an airplane. When he turned his back, he said, he was engulfed with fear and ran as fast as he could to save himself.
When the shocking news reached her in San Juan via cellphone, Mayor Lim who was obviously shock of the unexpected tragedy, and somewhat controlling some injured emotion,said:”Maybe it is not yet my time..But I could not believe that Guinsaugon would be hit by the mudslide and be buried entirely, because it is located one kilometer away from the foot of the mountain…Until now I could not believe what happened to Guinsaugon,”she said during her speech before some barrio folks, visitors, dignitaries, donors and the press at Ground Zero.
According to the geologists, the less than 900 meters High Mountain is also located within the Philippine fault line that’s responsible for the yearly movements of pyroclastic deposits estimated at 2.5cm./year.Guthrie study had also confirmed to this claim by saying “that tectonic weakening of the failed rock mass had resulted from active strike-slip movements estimated at 2.5 cm/year”. “Within that, the rocks have been stretched and strained”, he said “As time moves on, the rock began to age and die and finally it collapses”.
Zarco said that there were many existing evidences within the area prior to the landslide but people (the residents) were not aware of these. Among the things were cracks on the grounds, muddy water coming out from the holes and irregular water flow from the mountain.
Another contributory factor to the landslide was small magnitude earthquakes which happened the night before the massive landslide and another tremor the following morning prior to the actual mudslide.
In a report Mayor Rentuza said that many of their questions were clarified by the visiting geoscientists, just like how it did happen and how come it’s very devastating. “While there were studies conducted by the national government”, the Mayor said, “the researchers from the academe and foreign geoscientists are more comprehensive considering their vast experiences in working in different calamity-striken areas of the world”.
On the other hand, Zarco further said, there are many existing evidences within the area confirming that Mt. Kan-abag is very prone to landslide. He said: “The calamity happened already. What is important is that we all agreed that this area is highly vulnerable to landslide. If the people have been more careful, noticing that the signs are already there, many lives were spared…There should have to be ways to get people report their information to authorities. That’s very good early warning system. For landslide, we don’t have a warning system. We can only warn people by way of monitoring”.
This report from the geoscientists and experts should also served as a lesson to all residents in other areas of the country and other nations with similar geological make-up to that of Guinsaugon.One of the ways to detect a potential landslide is to be aware of the signs of an incoming massive landslide that were revealed in this article. (Quirico M. Gorpido, Jr.)